Centro de Documentação da PJ
Analítico de Periódico
CD 341
Violence after victory? [Recurso eletrónico] : civil wars, one-sided wins, and terrorism in the post-conflict period / Kathryn Lauren Roman Banda, Mahtab Shafiei
Perspectives on Terrorism, Vol. 18, n. 1 (March 2024), p. 62-90
Ficheiro de 760 KB em formato PDF.
TERRORISMO, TÁCTICA TERRORISTA, GUERRA, VIOLÊNCIA POLÍTICA
Our research juxtaposes terrorism with intrastate wars. We start from the assumption that terrorism is politically motivated and examine the persistence of these motivations following one-sided civil war victories. Using a difference-in-difference (DID) model and benchmark sensitivity analysis, we analyse over 70 terrorist groups active during civil wars from 1970-2014. We find that one-sided insurgent victories are both less frequent and less stable than one-sided incumbent wins. Post-conflict terrorism is purposeful in the sense that actors employ this form of violence to express dissatisfaction with war outcomes. In general, terrorism by pro-government actors drops off sharply in the post-conflict period; yet terrorism by anti-government actors tends to increase. This increase is particularly noteworthy following one-sided insurgent victories; the regime change inherent in such victories does little to quell the motivation for terrorist violence among ancillary nonstate actors in the post-war period.
